The Jacksonville Jaguars’ offense hasn’t looked great through two weeks but a date with the injured Houston Texans should prove to be a slump buster for Trevor Lawrence and the home side, who sit as 9-point NFL odds favorites which could lengthen if Houston can’t get healthy ahead of the Sunday matchup.
With a positive game script on deck and plenty of touches coming his way, is getting Travis Etienne for a touchdown at -110 the best bet for this game considering he handled every running-back carry in Week 2?
Here are my Week 3 free NFL picks for the Texans vs. Jaguars on Sunday, September 24.
Texans vs Jaguars odds
Texans vs Jaguars predictions
Despite getting shut out in the end zone last week, the Jaguars have a great opportunity to stack points Sunday vs. an injured Houston team. Travis Etienne to score a TD at -110 (play to -130 or even -135) is looking like the best bet on the board in what should be a lopsided victory for the Jags.
The Jaguars went 0-for-3 in the red zone last week, but the KC defense is very underrated and has given up just 23 points through two weeks. Now, the Jaguars offense faces a Houston team that’s allowed 56 points through two weeks, ceding TDs in the red zone at a 78% rate, one of the worst marks in football.
Making this an even more advantageous matchup for the Jacksonville run game, which should see a ton of positive game script, is the health of both teams.
The Jags have dealt with injuries to their O-line early in the season but will be as healthy as they’ve ever been Sunday, with the exception of Cam Robinson who is still suspended.
The injuries to the Houston Texans are laughable at this point, as they’re dealing with serious O-line casualties and their secondary is basically walking wounded.
Houston’s starting safeties missed Week 2 and are questionable this week. Jimmy Ward looks like he might be a go on Sunday but Jalen Pitre was absent Thursday. They could be possibly down three of their Top-4 safeties and now starting corner Derek Stingley is out after a hamstring injury at practice. Linebacker Denzel Perry is also questionable leaving an already weak defense in tatters this weekend.
Etienne is a monster part of this offense and took all the running-back carries last week outsnapping backup Tank Bigsby 46 to 12 in the Week 2 loss. He has 30 carries and has run 56 routes through two weeks. The Jaguars are going to stack points Sunday and Etienne has one of the best TD paths on the board. I’d play this to -135.
My best bet: Travis Etienne anytime touchdown (-110 at bet365)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Texans vs Jaguars same-game parlay
Etienne anytime TDEtienne 100+ total yardsCollins Over 54.5 receiving yards.
+600 at bet365
Not a lot of things need to go right for this +600 dandy to cash. A big game with a positive game script is in store for Etienne, who can pile yards on the ground vs. this defense but also has the outs of gaining some yards in the passing game. He could hit the century mark on the ground alone.
Nico Collins has a 24% target share and is getting targeted on 30% of his routes. He had 80 yards in Week 1 and nearly 150 last week. Even with a worst-case scenario of a Davis Mills start, this can cash.
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Texans vs Jaguars spread and Over/Under analysis
The Jaguars were -7.5 on the look-ahead, scored zero TDs in Week 2, and reopened at -9 — hitting as high as -10 in spots. That number settled to -9 as of mid-week but after the multi-week injury to Derek Stingley, this number is on the move again and should close at double digits.
The Texans are just decimated. They’re down three or four starters on defense, including two members of the secondary and a backup. Safety Jimmy Ward missed last week but is practicing this week so that might help, but everywhere it seems on this roster has injuries. There are currently four members of the O-line on IR or the PUP list and if Laremy Tunisl can’t suit up, that will be the second game in a row where the Texans will be missing 60% of their starting O-line.
To pile on, rookie QB CJ Stroud, who padded his stats in garbage time last week, is dealing with a lingering shoulder injury and he hasn’t been throwing at practice.
The Jaguars are healthier heading into a game where the offense should bounce back. The Texans are allowing third-down conversions at a 52% rate and giving up TDs in the red zone at an alarming 78%. The Jags were held out of the end zone last week vs. a very underrated KC defense, but the offense will click this week. The Jags’ team total currently sits at 27.5.
The total has seen 1.5 points of movement to the Under since the look-ahead number of 45.5. The Jacksonville offense hasn’t inspired many Over bettors this week and Stroud threw for 190 yards in the fourth quarter in garbage time vs. a soft Indy defense.
Houston does run plays quickly with the fourth-fastest pace of play, but a lot of that has been with the negative game script and the O-line issues are worrisome for potential drive stallers.
This game does project to have a good pace of play and I can’t see this number getting any lower than 44 — especially with the Stingley news. There’s certainly a scenario that plays out like the Indy vs. Houston game last week and Jacksonville gets up big early and the Texans backdoor this Over. The shoulder injury to Stroud is a little concerning here as I would not want any piece of a Mills Over.
In terms of usage, Etienne is getting a massive workload and took all the RB carries last week. Bigsby could see some mop-up duties late, which means his 2H TD is in play if you can find it (usually a FanDuel market).
The Jags roll out plenty of 3-WR sets but No. 2 Zay Jones is questionable with a knee injury. That could leave more work for Christian Kirk and possibly Jamal Agnew, but with the expected positive game script, it’s tough to trust the passing game.
The Texans have struggled to run the ball with the O-line issues but the passing game has been producing some Overs. Collins sits second on the team in snaps but has a decent 24% target share. Rookie Tank Dell ran 20 more routes in Week 2 than in Week 1 but is dealing with a thigh injury. He was limited at practice but might have become Stroud’s second-favorite target. Including Robert Woods, all three receivers have opportunities — especially with the negative game scripts.
